The 2025 season in the Big 12 Conference was one dominated by the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. As Arizona State looked to build off their 2024 conference title, almost everyone saw the Texas Tech train coming down the tracks, as they spent almost $30 million on their roster for last season.

The spending paid off, as Texas Tech rolled to an impressive 11-1 regular season, with their only loss coming to Arizona State in Tempe while Behren Morton was hurt. They quickly regained their stride and ended up beating BYU, who also finished the regular season 11-1, twice in the final month, with the second win coming in the Big 12 title game in Arlington.

The Big 12 only earned one bid into the College Football Playoff last season, with Texas Tech taking the conference's lone spot. Unfortunately, they did not show up very well, losing 23-0 to Oregon in the Orange Bowl. Due to this fact, there will be much scrutiny on the Big 12 this season, and almost certainly, only one spot in the playoff will be up for grabs.

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1.Texas Tech

2025 Results: As stated above, the Red Raiders gambled in the offseason by spending all that money, and it paid off. They had one of the best defenses in the conference and dominated almost every game. The season ended on a sour note, as getting blown out in the playoff means the Red Raiders are going to be hungry for more this coming season.

Brendan Sorsby transferred in looking to be the next leader, but found out quickly that betting on your own team is frowned upon. Will Hammond will now return as the backup from last season and take over as the starter.

Keys for 2026: Thanks to all the offseason drama surrounding Sorsby, the Red Raiders have flown under the radar a little more than they did last season. Will Hammond steps into the starting role for the 2026 season, and honestly, I think he's better than Sorsby ever would have been.

Hammond basically led the win against Utah last season after Morton went down with an injury and ended up throwing for 680 yards and seven touchdowns in the two games he started before tearing his ACL and being sidelined for the season. He now comes back into the role as the full-time starter and looks to elevate the offense once again.

I am under the impression that the only reason Texas Tech went so hard after Sorsby, and then again with the legality of him being able to play, is because they didn't know if Hammond was going to be 100% to start the year. It looks like Hammond will be healthy, and personally, I believe they made the right choice. I don't mind how they got there.

The Red Raiders have a cakewalk of a schedule this year, as they avoid both BYU and Utah. Hosting Houston on September 18th, a Friday night, looks to be their toughest conference game by far—and that's assuming Houston is what the experts think they will be.

2026 Prediction: 12-0

2.BYU

2025 Results: Finishing 12-2, the Cougars only lost to one team last season: Texas Tech, twice, in embarrassing fashion both times. Five come-from-behind victories made fans sweat a little more than they would have liked during a 12-2 campaign, but nonetheless, the Cougars played well and deserved their No. 11 ranking at the end of the season.

Keys to 2026: The departure of Jay Hill went under the national radar in a chaos-filled offseason for the Cougars. Headlines of head coach Kalani Sitake being lured away by Penn State, only to be snatched back by determined BYU donors, stole the show. But Hill's defense was a big part of the Cougars' success over the last two seasons.

The fact that the majority of the Cougars' starters on defense from last season are returning, along with the addition of Cade Uluave from Cal, only helps their cause. Look for Bear Bachmeier to take a big step forward. He was thrust into the starting role as a true freshman, and now he has an entire year on campus under his belt. His passing game should be improved, and it's a known fact that his decision-making and leadership have progressed.

Senior running back LJ Martin looks to cement his name as one of the great BYU running backs of the past 10 years with an explosive final season.

The Cougars face a tough schedule, as they start off against Arizona in Week 2 in an early test in Provo. The highlight of the year comes on October 17th, as Notre Dame comes to Provo to take on the Cougars. A 45-minute trip up I-15 to take on the Utes on November 7th highlights the toughest part of their schedule.

2026 Prediction: 11-1

3.Utah

2025 Results: The Utes had one of their more successful regular seasons in recent years. Finally figuring out how to win in the Big 12, the Utes went 10-2 overall and 7-2 in conference play, only losing to Texas Tech and BYU. Quarterback Devon Dampier shined, and the defense was stout as always. Apparently, that wasn't good enough for the higher-ups and donors, as they forced head coach Kyle Whittingham into "retirement" and named former defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley the new head coach.

Keys to 2026: No one knows what to expect with Scalley as the lead guy in Salt Lake City now. Yes, he's been on the coaching staff since 2007, but now it's his show. Is he going to follow in his great mentor's footsteps or try to reinvent the wheel?

He was able to keep Devon Dampier and backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin from entering the transfer portal, but offensive coordinator Jason Beck followed Coach Whit to Michigan, along with countless other key players. Kevin McGiven now takes over the play-calling duties for the offense, with an underwhelming incoming transfer and recruiting class. Look for a lot of the workload to be put on Dampier and running back Wayshawn Parker, making their health a priority for Utah's success.

Arkansas comes to Rice-Eccles as what was thought to be a prime non-conference game, but the Razorbacks are a huge question mark this season. If the Utes handle business like they should, a fairly easy conference schedule sees home games against BYU and Houston, while trips to Arizona and TCU could pose a threat.

2026 Prediction: 10-2

4.Arizona

2025 Results: The Wildcats had an overall successful 2025 campaign. Losing road games to Iowa State and Houston, along with a home loss to BYU, resulted in a 9-3 regular season that included wins against ranked Cincinnati and Arizona State teams. A Holiday Bowl loss to SMU didn't end the season the way the Wildcats wanted, but it gave them good motivation for the offseason.

Keys to 2026: Noah Fifita enters his final season, and after staying through a new head coach and who knows how many offers to transfer, he's ready to finish what he started. He hopes to elevate the Wildcats into contenders in this year's Big 12.

Their schedule doesn't do them any favors this season, as they must travel to BYU and Texas Tech. They get to host Utah, but still, being required to play what I think are the top three teams in the conference is rough. A non-conference road trip to Pullman is no joke, as Washington State has beaten two of the last three Power Four schools to play at Martin Stadium.

The Wildcats need to take care of business in the games they should win, and on top of that, they have to pick one or two off where they are underdogs to have a chance.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

5. Houston

2025 Results: Willie Fritz had a great turnaround in his second season, as he went 10-3. Wins against Arizona, Arizona State, and LSU were the highlights, while losses against West Virginia and TCU were quite confusing for the Cougars. The win against LSU came in the Texas Bowl and ended the season on a high note, with lots of hope for 2026.

Keys to 2026: Conner Weigman enters his final season of a wild college football career. After transferring from Texas A&M, he has produced modest numbers for the Cougars. Houston adds six other transfers on offense in hopes of continuing the high-powered offense they showed last year.

With an easy non-conference schedule, the Cougars look to capitalize on their Big 12 schedule and take advantage of their games at home. They need to make sure they prepare well enough to play on the road, as that was a struggle last season. Road games against Texas Tech and Utah provide chances for the Cougars to prove that they have made that change.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

6. Arizona State

2025 Results: A somewhat disappointing season coming off their conference title the year before started with a loss at Mississippi State. A loss that looked much worse when it happened, got a little better with the play of the Bulldogs, but it was still a game they should have won. They then flip-flopped wins and losses to find themselves at 8-3 entering the Territorial Cup. A loss to rival Arizona and Duke to end the year spoiled what was otherwise a good year for the Sun Devils.

Keys to 2026: Even though Sam Leavitt was hurt for most of the season last year, losing him and Jordyn Tyson provides two gaping holes that need to be filled. In steps Cutter Boley, who started 10 games for the Kentucky Wildcats last season. His 15 touchdowns were encouraging, but his 12 interceptions were a concern.

Eight other starters will be transfers this season for the Sun Devils, and coach Kenny Dillingham will need to figure out how they mesh quickly, as they travel to College Station in Week 2 to take on the Aggies. Road trips to Lubbock, Provo, and Tucson provide the Sun Devils with a challenging conference schedule to go along with their marquee non-conference game.

2026 Prediction: 8-4

7. Oklahoma State

2025 Results: Rock bottom for the Cowboys saw their lone win come against FCS opponent UT Martin. Every other game went into the wrong column for the Cowboys, with only two of their 11 losses coming by 20 points or less. Mike Gundy was fired after 21 seasons in September, and Doug Meacham didn't do much better the rest of the season.

Keys to 2026: In steps offensive genius Eric Morris. Morris spent the last three seasons as the head coach of the North Texas Mean Green, and before that, spent a season as the offensive coordinator at Washington State. Morris took a North Texas team that hadn't had a winning season since 2018 and got them to 11-2 last season.

He brings the 2025 passing leader, Drew Mestemaker, with him, along with a whole slew of transfers. All 11 starters on offense are coming from the transfer portal, along with nine on defense. This is not the Cowboys of last season. They might wear the same colors and logo, but nothing else is the same.

It has already come out that Gundy didn't like to use the portal or NIL to his advantage, and now that there is a head coach who does, the donors seem to have once again opened their pockets.

While I don't think they get beat as badly as they did last year against Oregon, the Ducks come to Stillwater in Week 2, while Texas Tech comes to Boone Pickens Stadium in November. The Cowboys still have to travel to teams like Houston and Arizona State.

Look out for a big bounce-back year and the start of a reemergence in Stillwater.

2026 Prediction: 8-4

8. TCU

2025 Results: Wins against SMU and Houston in the regular season, along with the Alamo Bowl win against USC, were the high points for the Horned Frogs last season. Three road losses to Arizona State, Kansas State, and BYU, along with a close home loss to Iowa State, were what kept the 2025 season from being special for TCU.

Keys to 2026: Sonny Dykes has his hands full trying to replace Josh Hoover, as he transferred to Indiana. He dipped into the Ivy's to do so and got Jaden Craig from Harvard to take over the offense. Look for Jordan Dwyer to take a step forward this season on the receiving end. He had flashes of greatness last season but really needs to blossom into the role of an elite receiver if the Horned Frogs want to make some noise.

TCU opens the season in Week 0 in Ireland against the dumpster fire known as North Carolina. Conference games against Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Arizona have them facing off against what I think are the four best teams in the conference. With three of those games coming in the final four weeks, TCU could find themselves in the mix early on, but it is important that they finish the season strong.

2026 Prediction: 7-5

9. Kansas State

2025 Results: The season started in Ireland with a close loss to Iowa State. They then squeaked by FCS opponent North Dakota and lost to Army. It looked as if the wheels were going to come completely off, but the Wildcats righted the ship as best they could and proceeded to win all the games they were favored in and lose the ones they weren't. They finished 6-6 and declined a bowl appearance as coach Chris Klieman announced his retirement.

Keys to 2026: Wildcat legend Collin Klein now takes over as head coach after coming over from his role as Texas A&M's offensive coordinator. Avery Johnson is set for his senior season, and the Wildcats will go as far as Johnson takes them.

An overall decline from Johnson over the years has been a little disappointing for the fans in Manhattan. There was so much hype after his freshman season, but the last two have left a lot to be desired. While he has been a solid quarterback, he hasn't reached the elite level needed to take the Wildcats to the playoffs.

Let's hope that, from one quarterback to another, Klein can help Johnson take that step and do what he did for Kansas State in 2012.

The Wildcats host Washington State in non-conference play before starting their Big 12 schedule. Avoiding Texas Tech, Utah, and BYU helps the Wildcats, but their schedule contains a lot of what I think are the middle-of-the-pack teams, which makes the results capable of going either way.

2026 Prediction: 6-6

10. Baylor

2025 Results: The opening loss to Auburn in Waco wasn't what the Bears were hoping for, and following a win over SMU the next week, the rest of the season didn't go their way. Losing five of their final six games resulted in a 5-7 season for the Bears.

Keys to 2026: I think it's time to start having a hard discussion about Dave Aranda. This will be his seventh season as head coach in Waco, and aside from his 12-2 conference title season in 2021, he hasn't won more than eight games in a year. Half of his season have been losing efforts for the Bears as well.

It's no surprise that he is on the hot seat this season, but I think it might be a little late for that.

He was able to bring in quarterback DJ Lagway from Florida in the transfer portal. Lagway has tremendous upside, but he has shown over the last two seasons in the SEC that he couldn't hang with the big boys. Maybe the Big 12 will be more his pace, but if it's not, Aranda is going to be the one paying the price.

The Bears start the season against Auburn again, this time in Atlanta, and finish the season against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston. While those four games almost seem like certain losses, the middle eight games will prove crucial for the future of Aranda's career.

2026 Prediction: 6-6

11. West Virginia

2025 Results: In Rich Rodriguez's first season back as head coach of the Mountaineers, they had an up-and-down season. They defeated Pitt in the "Backyard Brawl" for the second time since its return in 2022, but then proceeded to lay down and let everyone beat them. That is, until they played ranked Houston in Houston and won. That win, along with a victory over Colorado, were their lone conference wins in a 4-8 campaign.

Keys to 2026: Rich Rodriguez needs to establish the explosive offense that he had with the Mountaineers during his first stint. I don't think he has a Pat White or Tavon Austin walking through the door right now, but he needs to make the most of what he's got.

That starts with Michael Hawkins, a transfer from Oklahoma. Hawkins backed up Arnold and Mateer over the last two years and looked good in what little playing time he received. Look for transfers Cam Cook at running back and Prince Strachan and DJ Epps at receiver to help Hawkins establish that explosive offense.

Non-conference games against Coastal Carolina and UT Martin help ease into the year, but a game against Virginia helps prepare them for what could be an up-and-down year in the Big 12.

2026 Prediction: 5-7

12. UCF

2025 Results: Another Big 12 team that had a coach return, Scott Frost looked to rekindle the magic he had at UCF during the 2016 and 2017 seasons. A win against North Carolina (and we know how I feel about the Tar Heels) was the lone bright spot of the season. Their only conference wins were home games against struggling West Virginia and Oklahoma State, en route to a 5-7 record.

Keys to 2026: McKenzie Milton isn't walking through the door to play quarterback, but as a matter of fact, he's there to coach the quarterbacks. Frost, like Rodriguez in Morgantown, needs to rebuild the explosive offense he had there during his first stint.

That starts with Alonza Barnett III. Barnett comes from James Madison, where he had tons of success through the air as well as on the ground. Don't take for granted the playoff experience he had, either. It doesn't matter if it wasn't close against Oregon—experience is experience.

Landen Chambers also transfers in from Central Arkansas, where he racked up over 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns at the FCS level. Look for those two to work in tandem and be a problem for opposing defenses.

A mild road schedule for the Knights allows them to make a claim and climb up the standings if they play well, but if they don't, it could be hard to find many conference wins.

2026 Prediction: 5-7

13. Cincinnati

2025 Results: A season that started out so well saw the Bearcats sitting at 7-1 and ranked No. 17 in the country. Then not only did the wheels fall off, the engine fell out, and everything blew up. The Bearcats lost their last five games of the season by an average margin of three scores. That included their bowl loss to Navy, too.

Keys to 2026: I am not sure if having the whole Brendan Sorsby fiasco behind them is a good or bad thing. There have been reports that Cincinnati knew about his betting and hid it, which could come back to bite them, but at least they had the entire offseason knowing he wasn't going to be their quarterback and could prepare accordingly.

JC French IV steps in after transferring from Memphis to take over the role of quarterback, and I just think he is lacking weapons around him. It's hard not to look at the end of last year and chalk that up to just luck. Something happened. Some say it was simply the dichotomy of the schedule, but I think it was more than that.

A cakewalk non-conference schedule gives way to a conference schedule that has much of the same as last year: plenty of ways to screw up.

2026 Prediction: 5-7

14. Kansas

2025 Results: Last season's campaign was much like 2024, just overall disappointing for the amount of time Lance Leipold has been in Lawrence. Losing almost every big game and only winning one road game the entire year left the Jayhawks at 5-7 and 3-6 in conference play.

Keys to 2026: I think this season is just going to be another step backward. To have Jalon Daniels for the last two years and not do anything just shows what kind of program they were. Now it's 2026, and Daniels is gone. They're left to look toward Isaiah Marshall, who has three pass attempts in his entire college career.

Dylan Edwards and Nik McMillan look to bolster the offense after transferring in this offseason, but I just don't think it's enough. LIU and Middle Tennessee look like sure wins for the Jayhawks, but everything else...I don't know about.

2026 Prediction: 3-9

15. Colorado

2025 Results: A huge step backward for Deion Sanders' squad after a great 2024 season was expected after losing Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter, but last year was bad. A win against ranked Iowa State was the only conference win on their way to a 3-9 season overall.

Keys to 2026: As we've learned with Sanders, there is always a mass exodus of transfers, as well as a giant group of incoming transfers each offseason, and this past offseason was no different. Quarterback Julian Lewis looks to be one of the constants in the Buffaloes' offense. New running backs and receivers look to help the offense, while the defense looks to start 11 transfers.

Let's hope the new players mesh well, because the 31 points per game that the defense gave up last year isn't going to fly this year.

I think Coach Prime is squarely on the hot seat when it comes to coaching ability. What I can't calculate is the amount of publicity that Colorado receives with him at the helm, and I am not sure the university cares enough about football to sacrifice that publicity.

They open the season in Atlanta against Georgia Tech and then, two weeks later, play at Northwestern. The game against FCS Weber State looks like a win, but hey, you never know. Everything else leans toward the loss column for the Buffs, but hey, they might be able to get one upset in there.

2026 Prediction: 2-10

16. Iowa State

2025 Results: A solid 8-4 campaign saw a four-game losing streak sandwiched between winning streaks. The Cyclones declined a bowl appearance, citing the fact that they had no coaching staff and a bunch of players had transferred.

Keys to 2026: Now, why would I have a team that finished with eight wins last year dead last in my projections? Let me explain.

With the departure of Matt Campbell and 23 players to Penn State, the Cyclones' athletic department found their guy in Washington State head coach Jimmy Rogers. Some of you might think I'm being petty, but I watched 12 games of Jimmy Rogers-coached football last year, and it wasn't good.

From playing the wrong quarterback for half the year to questionable schemes and play calls, it didn't look like Rogers was ready for the jump from FCS to FBS that he made coming from South Dakota State. On top of that, the WSU defense was atrocious, and they seemed to crumble in every possible way.

Counter that with WSU's bowl game, when Rogers had already taken the Iowa State job. They looked amazing. I firmly believe that Rogers was the problem at WSU, and if you can't win there, why should I think you can win in the Big 12?

I would love to be shocked, but 17 transfers don't provide me with much faith that this team will be good. Transfer quarterback Jaylen Raynor threw for a lot of yards in the Sun Belt, but he also threw for double-digit interceptions each year.

I'll believe this team is going to be good when I see them play good. Until then, I'm not convinced.

2026 Prediction: 2-10

Looking Ahead

Over the next month, leading up to Weeks 0 and 1, I'll be publishing my previews for each Power Conference, along with my final College Football Playoff predictions and Heisman Trophy pick. Below is the schedule for the upcoming conference previews. Get excited, and tune in to see what I have to say about your favorite team.

August 24 – SEC Preview (It does definetly just means more)
August 31 – College Football Playoff & Heisman Trophy Predictions along with Week 0 Reaction
September 7 – Week 1 Reaction and the Start of another great year