Group of 5 Season Preview

Each week leading up to Week 0 will feature a different conference preview. Stick around and look forward to each installment as I dive into each conference and what to expect in the upcoming season.

To kick things off, we're going to talk about the Group of Five—which is actually a bit misleading now that there are officially six lower-level conferences. The reemergence of the Pac-12 begins this year, and even though the conference has only eight teams, it is still vying for that coveted College Football Playoff spot. It pains me to succumb to the mainstream media and admit that the conference my beloved Washington State Cougars are part of is no longer considered a Power Five conference, but hey, whatever makes the path to the playoff easier.

Rather than preview all 69 Group of Six schools individually, I'll be looking at each conference as a whole, predicting my top three finishers, and going into greater depth on those specific teams.

American

Last year in the American Conference, Tulane outlasted Navy, South Florida, and North Texas in what could only be described as a cannibalistic mess down the stretch. Tulane was the best team on paper and on the field, ultimately defeating the North Texas Mean Green 34-21 to earn the program's first-ever trip to the College Football Playoff. The Green Wave were promptly throttled by Ole Miss, 41-10, but nonetheless achieved one of the best seasons in modern program history. Enough about last year—let's talk about this year.

1.Tulane

2025 Results: The Green Wave went 11-3, losing to Ole Miss twice, along with a head-scratching loss to UTSA in October. Their season included wins over Northwestern, Duke, and a ranked North Texas squad. The 2025 season resulted in Tulane's second American Conference title and its first trip to the College Football Playoff. It also saw head coach Jon Sumrall leave for Florida at the conclusion of the season.

Keys to 2026: Even with a new coach and a new quarterback following Jake Retzlaff's final season, I believe Tulane will repeat as American champions. Their new head coach, Will Hall, who was hired from within, faces a tough early schedule as the Green Wave travel to both Duke and Kansas State. If they can win just one of those games, he'll be in a great spot. Kadin Semonza takes over at quarterback, and watch out for Florida State transfer Jaylin Lucas in the backfield. LSU transfer Destin Hill rounds out the offensive firepower around the former MAC Freshman of the Year, Semonza. Defense always seems to be optional in the American, so why bother talking about it? If the Green Wave can score points, they're going to win games.

2026 Prediction: 10-2

2.Navy

2025 Results: The Midshipmen went an astonishing 11-2, with their only losses coming at North Texas and at Notre Dame. Neither of those games was particularly close, but their résumé included a ranked win over South Florida, a road victory at Memphis, the all-important win over Army, and a bowl victory against Power Four opponent Cincinnati.

Keys to 2026: As you would expect, Navy doesn't see many transfers in or out, but they do have to replace graduating players, and that's especially challenging this year. Blake Horvath and Eli Heidenreich accounted for what seemed like 99% of Navy's offense over the last few seasons. There's no reason to believe there aren't players waiting in the wings at the Naval Academy ready to take over that workload, but you never truly know until the first snap. A somewhat favorable schedule sees teams like Memphis and North Texas traveling to Annapolis. The only game that looks like an obvious loss is the Halloween night matchup against Notre Dame in Foxborough, but hey, crazier things have happened.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

3.East Carolina

2025 Results: The Pirates quietly finished 9-4 with a 6-2 record in the American. Early non-conference losses to NC State and BYU, followed by an early conference loss to Tulane, left them relatively overlooked despite how well they played. A late-season loss to UTSA doomed their conference title hopes, but a bowl victory over Power Four opponent Pittsburgh capped off an excellent season.

Keys to 2026: The Pirates need to replace Katin Houser, who transferred to Illinois, but Texas Tech transfer Mitch Griffis looks ready to step into that role. The biggest thing working in East Carolina's favor is continuity with head coach Blake Harrell returning. They do have two new coordinators, but compared to teams like Memphis, South Florida, and North Texas—whose entire coaching staffs were turned over—the Pirates remain relatively stable. They open the season against Alabama, but if they survive that game physically, the seas are pretty calm the rest of the way as they look to fly the Jolly Roger.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

Other American Teams

Like I mentioned above, countless teams had their head coaches poached, along with many of their top skill players. Watch how Memphis, South Florida, and North Texas follow up great seasons with virtually brand-new coaching staffs and rosters. UTSA seemed to play spoiler for several teams last year, so keep an eye on the Roadrunners to see if they can string together more than just a few good weeks and insert themselves into the conference title conversation.

Conference USA

The 2025 season saw the Kennesaw State Owls win their first conference title in just their second year in Conference USA. They defeated the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in one of the closest conference championship games in recent memory. No team from Conference USA appeared in either the AP Poll or the College Football Playoff Rankings.

1.Liberty

2025 Results: The Flames had an overall disappointing season, finishing 4-8 after entering the year as the preseason favorites to win the conference. Their last three losses all came in overtime, and only two of their eight losses were by more than 10 points.

Keys to 2026: There's no way head coach Jamey Chadwell lets a repeat of 2025 happen. West Virginia transfer Jaylen Henderson looks to lead the Flames' offense this season. Just like the school's views, Liberty's schedule is ultra-conservative, and once again, 2026 is no different. Their biggest games are road trips to James Madison and Coastal Carolina. Not exactly must-see TV, but it sets Liberty up nicely for success in Conference USA.

2026 Prediction: 10-2

2.Jacksonville State

2025 Results: The Gamecocks finished 9-5, losing three games in the first five weeks before righting the ship. Despite a late slip-up against FIU, they still earned the right to host the Conference USA Championship Game, where they were upset by Kennesaw State. A bowl victory over Troy left a good taste in their mouths to end the 2025 season.

Keys to 2026: Head coach Charles Kelly only had to replace offensive coordinator Clint Trickett after he accepted the same position at Maryland, and it appears Taylor Housewright is the man for the job. Keep an eye on the Gamecocks' offense early this season, as this will be Housewright's first year as an FBS offensive coordinator since leading Montana's offense in 2023. Jacksonville State has a favorable schedule, with its toughest test likely coming in Week 1 when it travels to the Fargodome to take on newly promoted FBS member North Dakota State. The Gamecocks also travel to Kennesaw State in early October in what could prove to be an early-season conference title eliminator.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

3.Kennesaw State

2025 Results: It wasn't difficult to improve on the program's 2-10 campaign in 2024, but the Owls exceeded all expectations last season. The year began with a one-point loss to Wake Forest, and after taking a beating from eventual national champion Indiana, things started clicking. Kennesaw State rattled off seven straight wins before falling to Jacksonville State. The Owls bounced back by getting revenge against the Gamecocks when it mattered most, capturing the Conference USA title before falling to Western Michigan in their bowl game.

Keys to 2026: Head coach Jerry Mack simply needs to keep doing what he's been doing. Syracuse transfer Rickie Collins has the reins entering the season, and after appearing in seven games for the Orange last year, he should be well prepared for this level of football. The Owls travel to Knoxville in Week 3, but outside of that matchup, they have a favorable home schedule that should once again put them in the conference title race.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

Other Conference USA Teams

Keep an eye on Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. The Hilltoppers and Bulldogs always seem to wreak havoc, and if they can string together several good weeks, the momentum could carry them all the way to the Conference USA Championship Game.

Mid-American Conference

The Western Michigan Broncos captured the MAC title last year with a victory over Miami (OH). As is tradition in the MAC, Tuesday and Wednesday nights in November were a blast for college football fans, but there were some casualties at the end of the season. Northern Illinois decided it no longer wanted to play on those midweek nights and departed for the Mountain West Conference. Have no fear, though—Sacramento State, which is making the transition from the FCS to the FBS, will join the MAC for the upcoming season.

1.Miami (OH)

2025 Results: As mentioned above, the RedHawks fell just short of the ultimate prize despite finishing 7-7. An 0-3 start didn't discourage Miami, as it went 6-2 in conference play before losing its final two postseason games: one to the aforementioned Western Michigan Broncos in the MAC Championship Game and the other to Fresno State in its bowl game.

Keys to 2026: Their biggest motivation for the upcoming season should really be their basketball team—just do what they did and go virtually undefeated. Chuck Martin returns for his 13th season at the helm as the RedHawks look to win their ninth MAC title this century. The non-conference schedule looks much less intimidating this year, with Holy Cross coming to town in Week 2. The trip to Western Michigan in the final week of the regular season is the game everyone should have circled, and it very well could lead to these two teams meeting again two weeks later in the MAC Championship Game.

2026 Prediction: 8-4

2.Western Michigan

2025 Results: The Broncos captured their fourth MAC title last year and their first since their undefeated season in 2016. They also started the year 0-3 before rattling off an impressive 8-1 conference record, with their lone league loss coming against Miami. They ultimately got their revenge in the MAC Championship Game. A bowl victory over Kennesaw State capped off what was arguably the second-best season in Western Michigan history.

Keys to 2026: Lance Taylor remains at the helm for the Broncos, and with Broc Lowry returning at quarterback, Western Michigan has no excuse not to contend for another conference title. Non-conference games against Michigan and Boise State look like automatic losses, but matchups with Rice and Monmouth offer opportunities to get the gallop in sync early. As mentioned above, the trip to Oxford, Ohio, should already be circled on their calendars, as the RedHawks will be looking for revenge. That said, the Broncos can't afford to look that far ahead this early in the season.

2026 Prediction: 8-4

3.Ohio

2025 Results: The highlight of the Bobcats' season was their win over West Virginia. A victory against Miami and a loss to Western Michigan resulted in Ohio losing the tiebreaker for a spot in the MAC Championship Game, but a bowl win over UNLV helped the Bobcats finish the season on a high note.

Keys to 2026: John Hauser enters his first full season as head coach after serving as the interim for the bowl game following Brian Smith's firing for misconduct last December. It seems like putting that distraction behind them could help propel the Bobcats to another strong season. Their schedule presents a great opportunity because, after opening the year at Nebraska, Ohio settles into a favorable slate against comparable competition. Non-conference games against Jacksonville State and South Alabama will give the Bobcats a chance to prove themselves against quality Group of Five opponents.

2026 Prediction: 7-5

Other MAC Teams

In no way is Bowling Green going to be good this year but their opening game against Tarleton St is a must watch. The Bowling Green Falcons are looking to start their season with a kick off return for a touchdown for the THIRD STRAIGHT SEASON. Insanity if that happens. On a more serious note, watch for Toledo, they have the schedule to do it, and if they get hot, take the Rockets to the moon.

Mountain West Conference

The Mountain West Conference saw Boise State win its third straight conference title, a fitting sendoff for the Broncos before departing for the Pac-12. Along with Boise State, four other programs left the conference: San Diego State, Utah State, Colorado State, and Fresno State. UTEP, Northern Illinois, and North Dakota State will try to fill those voids this season as they begin play in the Mountain West.

1. UNLV

2025 Results: The Rebels opened the season 6-0, including a win over UCLA, before suffering midseason losses to Boise State and New Mexico. Back-to-back losses to Boise State in the conference championship and Ohio in their bowl game left UNLV at 10-4—an impressive record, but still short of its ultimate goal.

Keys to 2026: Dan Mullen returns for his second season with both of his coordinators, and honestly, it's his conference title to lose with the departure of three of last year's top five teams. Former Oklahoma and Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold takes over the offense behind a virtually brand-new offensive line. The Rebels open the season against two quality American Conference opponents in Memphis and North Texas before hosting Cal in October. A trip to Albuquerque in mid-November could very well determine who earns a spot in the conference championship game.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

2. North Dakota State

2025 Results: The Bison opened the season 12-0 before falling to eventual FCS runner-up Illinois State in the second round of the FCS Playoffs. They were ranked No. 1 for the entire season, defeating six ranked FCS opponents before suffering a shocking upset to the No. 17 Redbirds.

Keys to 2026: In North Dakota State's first season at the FBS level, Tim Polasek returns both of his coordinators but must replace his starting quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and cornerback. The Bison's success this season will depend largely on how those replacements perform. Their starting offense features only one transfer, with the rest of the lineup consisting of players who have developed within the program. Nathan Hayes takes over at quarterback as the Bison open the season against Conference USA contender Jacksonville State. Their first FBS schedule is favorable, featuring no Power Four opponents, and the showdown with UNLV in Las Vegas should already be circled on the calendar.

2026 Prediction: 10-2

3. New Mexico

2025 Results: An opening loss to Michigan, in which the Lobos were surprisingly competitive, set the tone for what turned into a strong season. Back-to-back losses to San Jose State and Boise State in early October were the only blemishes on an otherwise impressive campaign. A win over San Diego State to close the regular season placed New Mexico squarely in the middle of the Mountain West's convoluted conference championship tiebreaker—a system I'm still not convinced anyone fully understands. An overtime loss to Minnesota in the bowl game was the difference between a good season and a great one.

Keys to 2026: Jason Eck needs to capitalize on home-field advantage in his second season. The Lobos did an excellent job protecting their home turf last year, but this season will be much tougher with both UNLV and North Dakota State coming to Albuquerque. Defend home field again, and New Mexico could very well become the conference favorite. The Lobos also travel to Norman in September to face Oklahoma. While a win is highly unlikely, they need to avoid getting too banged up because they travel to rival New Mexico State the following week. If they leave Norman bruised and battered, things could get off the rails quickly, and they may find themselves wandering the desert before they know it.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

Other Mountain West Teams

The only other team in this conference that warrants a mention is Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors are coming off a solid 9-4 campaign, and head coach Timmy Chang is looking to make Hawaii football relevant again. As for the rest of the conference...don't bother.

Sun Belt

The Sun Belt remains the only conference that still uses divisions—don't ask me why. Last season, James Madison claimed the conference title and represented the Sun Belt in the College Football Playoff. The Dukes defeated Troy in the conference championship game and capped off a perfect 9-0 record against Sun Belt opponents.

1. James Madison

2025 Results: As mentioned above, James Madison won the conference championship and found itself traveling to Eugene to take on Oregon in the first round of the College Football Playoff. That loss was the Dukes' first since falling to Louisville in Week 2. It was an outstanding season in which James Madison dominated nearly every conference opponent before head coach Bob Chesney departed for UCLA.

Keys to 2026: Have no fear—Billy Napier is here. Probably the splashiest Group of Five coaching hire this offseason, the Dukes landed the former Florida head coach as they look to repeat as conference champions. Napier had tremendous success at Louisiana, and if James Madison wants to repeat, it will need strong production from quarterback Camden Coleman. Replacing Alonza Barnett won't be easy, but it all starts under center. The Dukes host Liberty and travel to both San Diego State and UConn in non-conference play. They also avoid Louisiana while hosting Troy, making a trip to Boone, North Carolina, to face Appalachian State their toughest conference test.

2026 Prediction: 11-1

2. Louisiana

2025 Results: A September 20 loss to Eastern Michigan put a damper on the season. Blowing a fourth-quarter lead on the road seemed to linger the rest of the year, as the Ragin' Cajuns finished just 6-7 after ending the season with a bowl loss to Delaware.

Keys to 2026: The Ragin' Cajuns are looking to bounce back, and they'll have plenty of continuity. Nearly every starter from last year's offense and defense returns. They do have to replace Walker Howard after his transfer to Ole Miss, but Lunch Winfield—great name, by the way—has spent three years in the system and should be ready to step into the starting role. After an early-season trip to USC, the remainder of the schedule is very manageable. Troy comes to town on October 17 in a game that will almost certainly determine who controls the West Division.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

3. Troy

2025 Results: The Trojans finished 8-6. They played teams like Clemson and Memphis surprisingly close, but they also suffered head-scratching losses, including a 33-0 shutout against Old Dominion. A loss to James Madison in the conference championship game, followed by a bowl defeat to Jacksonville State, spoiled what could have been a great season.

Keys to 2026: Goose Crowder returns at quarterback and needs to take yet another step forward. The schedule doesn't do Troy any favors, as several of its toughest conference games come on the road, along with an early trip to Logan to face a beatable Utah State team. If Troy can escape Logan in better shape than the Trojans of old did against Odysseus' fake livestock, look for them to keep rolling. If not, they'll need to regroup quickly to keep their season on track.

2026 Prediction: 8-4

Other Sun Belt Teams

Old Dominion is coming off a 10 win season, but it will be a miracle if they can do that again. Watch out for Southern Miss, they fell apart when it mattered most last year but if they can figure out how to keep it together, they could sneak into the conversion for the West Division.

PAC-12

The Pac is Back, Baby!

I saved the best for last this week, and boy, is it going to be exciting. Over the past two years, Washington State and Oregon State have been holding down the fort. They split their season series, but Washington State finished with the far superior record, claiming the unofficial Pac-12 title.

1. Washington State

2025 Results: The Cougs finished the season 7-6, but they were just 12 points away from going 11-2. Road losses to Ole Miss, Virginia, James Madison, and Oregon State—games in which they held fourth-quarter leads—spoiled what could have been a special season. I put the blame squarely on Jimmy Rogers, and good riddance he's gone. Have fun with him, Iowa State.

Keys to 2026: Kirby Moore has a full plate in his first season as head coach, but the situation is set up extremely well. Caden Pinnick steps in to replace Zevi Eckhaus after throwing for more than 3,000 yards and 32 touchdowns at UC Davis last season. He'll need to build on those numbers if Washington State is going to contend.

The majority of Wazzu's defense transferred to Iowa State during the offseason, but that's okay—they couldn't tackle anyway.

The biggest challenge is an absolute gauntlet of a non-conference schedule. Rated as one of the toughest in the country, the Cougars travel to Washington and Kansas State while hosting Arizona. Winning two of those three games would put them miles ahead of expectations, and even winning one would still be a successful start.

Fresno State and Boise State both have to come to Pullman, and call me a homer if you want, but Washington State should be able to win the majority of its conference games.

2026 Prediction: 9-3

2. Boise State

2025 Results: Ultimately, the 2025 season was a disappointment for the Broncos after their College Football Playoff appearance in 2024. Losing both non-conference games to quality opponents—South Florida and Notre Dame—put Boise State behind the eight ball in the race for national relevance. Despite finishing 6-2 in Mountain West play and winning another conference title, a lopsided bowl loss to Washington put a disappointing end to the season.

Keys to 2026: Maddux Madsen returns for his senior season, and he will be the X-factor for the Broncos. An outstanding sophomore campaign helped lead Boise State to the playoff, but regression during his junior year seemed to be the biggest reason the Broncos couldn't get over the hump. If he returns to his best form, watch out.

As always, Boise State schedules aggressively in non-conference play, and this year is no different. The Broncos travel to Oregon in Week 1, and if they can play the Ducks as well as they did two years ago, they could be in for a similar season. Hosting Memphis the following week provides another challenge, although not quite as much since that game will be played on the Smurf Turf.

The toughest conference games include road trips to Fresno State and Washington State. The late-November flex week could also provide Boise State with one more résumé-building opportunity.

2026 Prediction: 10-2

3. San Diego State

2025 Results: The Aztecs were one of the most confusing teams in college football last season, finishing 9-4. They opened the year with a 36-13 loss to a Washington State team that struggled offensively before responding with a 34-0 win over Cal. They then narrowly escaped Northern Illinois 6-3 the following week. Conference play brought more consistency until a head-scratching blowout loss to Hawaii and a double-overtime defeat against New Mexico in the regular-season finale knocked them out of the conference championship game. A narrow bowl loss to a ranked North Texas team ended the season on a slightly sour note.

Keys to 2026: Third-year head coach Sean Lewis is already making headlines by claiming San Diego State is going to disrupt college football this season.

And they certainly have the opportunity. Key non-conference games against UCLA and James Madison give the Aztecs a chance to build momentum before conference play. If they can beat those very winnable opponents, they'll enter league play in an excellent position. Hosting both Washington State and Fresno State at Snapdragon Stadium gives San Diego State an edge in those matchups. The biggest test, however, will come with the late-November trip to Boise.

2026 Prediction: 8-4

Other Pac-12 Teams

The only other team worth keeping an eye on is Texas State. Quarterback Brad Jackson is highly touted and widely regarded as both the best Group of Five quarterback and the most underrated quarterback in the country. If he gets slinging it, watch out for the Bobcats.

Looking Ahead

Over the next month, leading up to Weeks 0 and 1, I'll be publishing my previews for each Power Conference, along with my final College Football Playoff predictions and Heisman Trophy pick. Below is the schedule for the upcoming conference previews. Get excited, and tune in to see what I have to say about your favorite team.

August 3 – ACC Preview (Is anyone actually good?)
August 10 – Big Ten Preview (Four titles in a row?)
August 17 – Big 12 Preview (Can they show up on the national stage?)
August 24 – SEC Preview (It does definetly just means more)
August 31 – College Football Playoff & Heisman Trophy Predictions